Market Updates

Market Update 3/9/26

This Week in the Markets…

This week begins with volatility from geopolitical shocks on the backs of last week’s heavy losses due to US/Iran conflict, weak jobs data and oil price spikes. Pre-markets opened Monday (March 9) under intense selling pressure.

  • Monday–Friday (March 2-6): Roller-coaster with rebounds mid-week on diplomacy hopes/data, but sharp Thursday/Friday declines on oil surge and disappointing February jobs (-92,000 vs. expected gains). Friday close: S&P 500 down 1.33% to 6,740.02; Dow down 0.95% to 47,501.55; Nasdaq down 1.59% to 22,387.68. Weekly: S&P 500 -1.75% to -2%; Dow -2.89% to -3%; Nasdaq -0.59% to -1.2%.
  • Monday (March 9, premarket/open): Futures plunged overnight; Dow futures down ~1.2-1.25% (~567-600+ points, earlier >1,000); S&P 500 futures down ~1.1-1.14%; Nasdaq futures down ~1.1-1.2%. Oil topped $100-$105/barrel (Brent ~$104-105), fueling inflation/stagflation concerns.

Weekly to date (including March 9 premarket): Major indices poised for further downside, with VIX topping 30 (highest since April 2025 sell-off).

Focused Reporting: What Happened Overnight (March 8 Evening to March 9 Morning)

Overnight/premarket on March 9 (Monday), futures tumbled as oil surged past $100/barrel amid the war’s second week. Key developments: US/Israel strikes hit Iranian oil depots/refineries (first major energy targeting), blackened rain/fires in Tehran, Iranian missile salvos injuring Israelis, no de-escalation, and Trump demands for unconditional surrender rejected by Tehran (new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed after father’s death in strikes).

Hormuz shipping effectively halted; regional producers cut output/storage nearing capacity.

  • Futures: Dow down 1.19-1.25% (~567-600+ points); S&P 500 down 1.09-1.14%; Nasdaq down 1.16-1.2%.
  • Oil: Brent ~$104-105.67 (up 12-14% daily, 52-53% monthly); WTI similar surge to ~$102+.
  • Other moves: VIX >30; Treasury yields higher; safe-havens (gold) elevated but mixed; global markets softer.
  • Sentiment: Stagflation fears dominate as energy costs threaten growth/inflation reacceleration.

Issues Expected to Influence Market Performance in the Near Term

War-driven energy crisis and inflation dominate.

  • US-Israel-Iran War (Second Week): Intensified strikes on oil infrastructure; missile exchanges; regional widening (Gulf/Lebanon/Iraq); no ceasefire; prolonged campaign (~$1bn/day US cost) signals.
  • Oil Surge and Supply Crisis: Prices >$100-$105/barrel (multi-year highs); Hormuz blocked; output cuts/storage limits; fuels stagflation risks.
  • Inflation/Fed Policy: Energy shocks + weak jobs complicate path; higher yields likely; limited cuts expected.
  • Risk-Off Dynamics: Flight to safe-havens/defensives; energy/defense shortterm resilient; broad pressure on growth/tech/cyclicals.
  • Economic/Upcoming Data: Weak payrolls add recession worries; CPI/PCE this week pivotal.

High volatility with downside bias; potential for sharper moves on escalation.

Conclusion

Last week’s negative market reaction to US/Iran conflict (worst Dow week in nearly a year) extends into Monday premarket with sharp futures drops as oil tops $100+ amid unrelenting war and energy disruptions. Near-term outlook remains highly cautious: stagflation fears and conflict persistence weigh heavily. We continue to favor defensive stocks, energy exposure, safe-havens, and diversification. Best performing sectors in the S&P 500 ytd: Health Care, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Materials. We continue monitoring war headlines, oil flows, and inflation data closely. Our team meets this week for strategy updates and contingency model planning.

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References

Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, Chief Investment Officer at Roan Capital Partners – Experienced fee-only fiduciary wealth advisor in Tennessee

Written by: Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, DBA, CIMA, CTFA, CIS, Chief Investment Officer

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