This week in the markets…
U.S. stock futures ticked higher Monday after a losing week for the major averages. Trading will be shortened again this week, as markets will be closed Thursday to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter. Investors will be watching December jobs data due Friday for signs of the U.S. economy’s strength (Pramuk, 2025).
Global semiconductor stocks climbed Monday in response to strong quarterly results from Foxconn. Hon Hai Precision Industry, which does business as Foxconn around the world, said its revenue climbed 15% year over year, signaling the enthusiasm around AI is not abating. In the U.S., shares of chipmakers including Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom rose in premarket trading (Pramuk, 2025).
German inflation jumped to a higher-than-expected 2.9% in December, the German statistics office said in the first reading since the country’s government was dissolved late last month. It compares with a 2.6% forecast from analysts polled by Reuters. The harmonized consumer price index rose by 0.7% on a monthly basis. December marked the third consecutive month in which German inflation was back above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. The indicator fell to 1.8% in September, then jumped back to 2.4% in October and was unchanged at that level in November (Kinderlin, 2025).
| 1/3/2024 | 1/1/2025 | 1/3/2025 | 12 MO ROR | YTD ROR | |
| DOW | 37,430.19 | 42,544 | 42,732 | 0.2% | 0.44% |
| S&P 500 | 5,930.85 | 5,881.63 | 5,942.47 | 33.89% | 1.05% |
| NASDAQ | 19,480.91 | 19,310.79 | 19,621.68 | 35.12% | 1.49% |
The stock market faces its first major test of the year in the coming week , with investors counting on the U.S. jobs report to show a stable but not overheated economy that underpins expectations for equity gains in 2025. The report for December, due out on Jan 10, is expected to show growth of 150,000 jobs with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, according to a Reuters poll of economists (Krauskopf, 2025).
The first earnings season of the New Year will also get underway on January 10th, with the big banks reporting results for the last quarter of 2024. The expectation is that 2024 Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 index will be up +7.6% on +4.7% higher revenues. This would follow the +8.3% earnings growth in Q3 on +5.5% higher revenues. At the sector level, estimates have been cut for 11 of the 16 sectors since the quarter got underway, with the biggest declines at the Aerospace, Industrial Products, Energy, Conglomerates, and Basic Materials sectors. On the positive side, estimates have increased since the quarter underway for 5 of the sectors. These sectors are Finance, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Business Services, and Autos (Mian, 2025).
U.S. Treasury
Bond Yields
| US1MO | 4.4 |
| US3MO | 4.34 |
| US6MO | 4.25 |
| US1Y | 4.17 |
| US2Y | 4.28 |
| US3Y | 4.31 |
| US5Y | 4.41 |
| US10Y | 4.60 |
| US30Y | 4.82 |
Sources:
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/06/germany-inflation-december-2024.html
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-st-week-ahead-us-jobs-report-poses-first-big-stocks-test-2025-2025-01-03/
- https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/q4-earnings-season-looms-a-preview?post=476224
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/06/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-monday.html
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