Market Updates

US-China Trade Agreement: May 2025

Over the weekend of May 9–11, 2025, the United States and China concluded high-level trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, marking a significant step toward de-escalating a trade war that had intensified with 145% US tariffs on Chinese goods and China’s retaliatory 125% tariffs on US imports (White House, 2025, White House, 2025; Reuters, 2025, Reuters, 2025). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, alongside Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, announced ”substantial progress” and the establishment of a ”trade consultation mechanism” to address ongoing economic issues (New York Times, 2025, ew York Times, 2025; Politico, 2025, Politico, 2025). Both sides described the talks as ”candid, in-depth, and constructive,” with a joint statement released on May 12 detailing a temporary tariff reduction agreement (CNN, 2025, NN, 2025; ABC News, 2025, BC News, 2025).

The agreement includes a 90-day tariff reduction period starting May 14, 2025, with the US lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% (comprising a 10% base tariff and a 20% fentanyl-related duty) and China reducing tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% (GlobalMktObserv, 2025, lobalMktObserv, 2025; PatrickMoorhead, 2025, PatrickMoorhead, 2025). This ceasefire aims to facilitate further negotiations, though sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, rare earths, and advanced semiconductors remain in place (PatrickMoorhead, 2025, PatrickMoorhead, 2025). The talks also addressed the US trade deficit, which President Trump has labeled a national emergency, and China’s concerns over export controls (USAToday, 2025, USAToday, 2025). Chinese officials emphasized a ”win-win” approach, with Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang noting the agreement’s potential to benefit global trade (ABC News, 2025, BC News, 2025).

While the deal does not fully resolve tensions, it has boosted market optimism, with S&P 500 E-minis rising 1.3% and Nasdaq futures gaining 1.6% on May 11 (Reuters, 2025, Reuters, 2025). However, analysts caution that a return to normal trade relations remains distant, with tariffs above 50% still posing challenges (Guardian, 2025, Guardian, 2025).

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References:

  • ABC News. (2025, May 11). White House says it has a deal with China while Chinese call it ’consensus’. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com CNN. (2025, May 11).
  • Top US officials emerge from China trade talks touting ‘substantial progress’. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com GlobalMktObserv. (2025, May 12).
  • US and China agreed to LOWER tariffs. Retrieved from X. Post ID: 4. 1
  • The Guardian. (2025, May 11). White House claims China trade deal reached while Beijing hails ‘important first steps’. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com
  • The New York Times. (2025, May 11). U.S. Says ‘Substantial Progress’ Made in Trade Talks With China. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com
  • PatrickMoorhead. (2025, May 12). Here’s what US & China agreed to. Retrieved from X. Post ID: 3. Politico. (2025, May 11).
  • US-China agree on trade consultation platform amid sky-high tariffs. Retrieved from https://www.politico.com Reuters. (2025, May 11).
  • US, China hail ’constructive’ Geneva trade talks, details due Monday. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com Reuters. (2025, May 11).
  • Investors welcome news of progress in US-China trade talks. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com
  • USA Today. (2025, May 11). Trump officials say trade deal reached with China but details remain unclear. Retrieved from https://www.usatoday.com
  • The White House. (2025, May 11). U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov
Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, Chief Investment Officer at Roan Capital Partners – Experienced fee-only fiduciary wealth advisor in Tennessee

Written by: Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, DBA, CIMA, CTFA, CIS, Chief Investment Officer

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