Market Updates

Situation Report: Epic Fury (US-Iranian Conflict) as of March 13, 2026

Executive Summary

As of the morning of March 13, 2026, the US-Israeli joint operation against Iran, Operation Epic Fury (US) / Operation Lion’s Roar (Israel), has entered its fourteenth day (since initiation on February 28). Overnight and early morning developments (March 12-13) include a US military KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft crashing in Iraq during operations (mid-air incident reported, rescue efforts underway, 4 crew fatalities confirmed), Iranian missile strikes hitting a residential area in northern Israel, continued attacks on Gulf shipping and tankers (disrupting traffic), President Trump ordering the release of 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter oil price surges (Brent above $100/barrel), and defiant statements from both sides: Trump warning “watch what happens” amid claims of victory and dominance, while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vows to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and open new fronts. CENTCOM reports Iranian military capabilities “totally dismantled” with over 5,500 targets hit, missile/drone attacks reduced ~90%, navy eliminated. US casualties now include additional losses from the crash; Iranian civilian toll >1,300-2,000+. Oil markets remain volatile with Hormuz effectively closed; global protests and economic shocks intensify. No ceasefire: Iran rules out talks, threatens energy retaliation; conflict shows signs of stalemate with asymmetric persistence.

Key Changes Overnight: (March 12-13)

Overnight developments feature a major US aircraft incident, maritime/shipping escalations, oil reserve release, and heightened rhetoric:

  • Military Actions: US/Israel strikes persist on regime/nuclear/missile sites; CENTCOM footage shows ongoing elimination of threats; B-2 bombers and precision munitions used. KC-135 crash in Iraq (friendly airspace, mid-air with second aircraft suspected); rescue ongoing.
  • Iranian Retaliation: Missile strike on northern Israel residential area (fire/debris); attacks on Gulf shipping/tankers (damage off Dubai/Iraq); joint IRGC-Hezbollah operations; threats to burn regional oil/gas sites if energy infrastructure hit.
  • Leadership/Succession: Mojtaba Khamenei vows “complete revenge,” Strait closure, new fronts; remains low-profile but defiant.
  • US Statements: Trump orders SPR release (172M barrels); warns “watch what happens”; claims war won/ending soon but escalation if Hormuz blocked; Hegseth/Pentagon briefings reinforce dominance.
  • Casualties: US: Additional 4 from KC-135 crash (total deaths rising); ~140+ wounded. Iran: >1,300-2,000 civilians; regional (Lebanon hundreds).
  • Economic/Global: Oil >$100/barrel (surge despite SPR release); Hormuz closed/disrupted; markets slide; protests in Athens/other cities.
  • Other: IRGC chilling warnings on energy retaliation; US allows more Russian oil sales; diplomacy stalled.

These highlight coalition air dominance amid Iranian maritime/proxy threats and economic warfare.

Updated Timeline of Key Events (Focus on Overnight)

  • March 12 Evening – March 13 Morning: KC-135 crash in Iraq (4 fatalities, rescue); Iranian missile hits northern Israel residential; Gulf tanker/shipping attacks; Trump SPR release order; Khamenei vows closure/new fronts; Trump “watch what happens”; oil volatility; Pentagon briefings.
  • March 13 Morning: Ongoing strikes/exchanges; Hormuz closure confirmed; global condemnations/protests.

Updated Casualties and Humanitarian Impacts

  • US: 7+ killed (prior) plus 4 from KC-135 crash; ~140+ wounded.
  • Iran: >1,300-2,000 civilians killed; thousands sites damaged.
  • Israel and Region: Injuries/deaths from missiles (northern Israel); Lebanon hundreds killed/injured; Gulf incidents.
  • Humanitarian: Displacement/evacuations; residential strikes; stranded travelers; worldwide protests.

Updated Economic and Global Impacts

Oil >$100/barrel (SPR release tempers but Hormuz closure drives); shipping disruptions; energy panic in Asia; markets down; potential largest supply disruption in history

International Reactions and Statements (Updates)

  • US: Trump: Victory claims, SPR release, warnings; Hegseth: Intense strikes continue.
  • Israel: Strikes ramp up; no limits.
  • Iran: Khamenei: Closure/revenge/new fronts; IRGC energy threats; no talks.
  • Others: Gulf intercepts/condemnations; UN warnings; protests globally.

Conclusion

Overnight incidents (KC-135 crash, Israel strike, shipping attacks) and Trump’s SPR move amid Hormuz closure underscore economic warfare escalation despite US dominance claims (>5,500 targets, capabilities dismantled). Iranian defiance under Mojtaba Khamenei sustains multifront risks; casualties/economic shocks mount. No quick resolution; prolonged attrition likely. We are moving on our contingency model for a longer-term conflict as of this morning.

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References

  • Al Jazeera. (2026, March 13). Iranian missile strikes residential area in northern Israel.
  • Fox News. (2026, March 13). Trump orders release of 172M barrels of oil from strategic reserve amid Iran war.
  • Iran International. (2026, March 13). Operation Epic Fury unprecedented success against Iran – White House.
  • NBC News. (2026, March 13). Live updates: Oil tops $100 as Iran attacks ships, war enters Day 14.
  • New York Times. (2026, March 13). Various live updates on Iran war.
  • Various X posts (March 12-13, 2026). Including updates from @MarioNawfal, @Grant_EOD, @anadoluagency, and others on crash, strikes, and developments.
Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, Chief Investment Officer at Roan Capital Partners – Experienced fee-only fiduciary wealth advisor in Tennessee

Written by: Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, DBA, CIMA, CTFA, CIS, Chief Investment Officer

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