Market Updates

Situation Report: Epic Fury (US-Iranian Conflict) as of March 12, 2026

Executive Summary

As of the morning of March 12, 2026, the US-Israeli joint operation against Iran, Operation Epic Fury (US) / Operation Lion’s Roar (Israel), has entered its thirteenth day (since initiation on February 28). Overnight and early morning developments (March 11-12) include a new broad wave of Israeli strikes across Iran targeting regime infrastructure, continued US-Israeli airstrikes (including on nuclear-related sites and Hezbollah in Lebanon), Iranian escalation with attacks on Gulf shipping (e.g., container ship struck near Dubai, oil tankers hit off Iraq), joint IRGC-Hezbollah missile operations against Israeli bases, and President Trump declaring the war “already won” with objectives largely achieved, signaling it could end “soon” while warning of severe response if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM reports Iran’s military “totally dismantled” with missile/drone capabilities down ~90%, navy eliminated (50+ vessels), and air defenses neutralized. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (injured early in war with leg/foot fractures, facial bruising/lacerations) remains low-profile but confirmed “safe.” US casualties: 7 killed, ~140 wounded. Iranian civilian deaths >1,348 (UN/Iran reports); Lebanon ~634 killed. Oil topped $100/barrel before dipping amid attacks on energy/shipping, global markets volatile. No ceasefire: Iran rules out negotiations, vows indefinite resistance; conflict widens with proxies and maritime threats.

Key Changes Overnight: (March 11-12)

Overnight shifts emphasize intensified strikes, maritime escalations, Trump’s victory claims, and Iranian defiance:

  • Military Actions: Israel launches “wide scale” strikes on Iranian infrastructure; US/Israel hit nuclear sites, IRGC assets; CENTCOM: Devastating power continues, objectives (missiles, navy, proxies, nuclear denial) met; decoy drones used; Iron Beam deployed in Israel.
  • Iranian Retaliation: Attacks on Gulf shipping/ports (Dubai-area ship hit, Iraq tankers); joint IRGC-Hezbollah strikes on Israeli air bases/Shin Bet; missiles/drones toward Israel/Gulf (intercepts in Saudi/UAE); threats to blockade Hormuz/oil until attacks cease.
  • Leadership/Succession: Mojtaba Khamenei injured early (fractured foot, eye bruising, facial lacerations) but “safe/sound”; no public appearances; regime projects stability.
  • US Statements: Trump: “We have won,” war “very complete,” end “soon”; mixed with Hormuz warnings (“death, fire and fury”); Hegseth/CENTCOM: Unstoppable momentum, Iran isolated/losing.
  • Casualties: US: 7 killed, ~140 wounded. Iran: >1,348 civilians (UN rep). Region: Lebanon 634 killed; Israel 13; UAE 6.
  • Economic/Global: Oil >$100 (surge/dip); Hormuz disruptions (mining/attacks); energy markets threatened; costs ~$11B+ first week+.
  • Other: Hezbollah 200+ rockets; Beirut seafront strike kills 7-8; Iraqi militias heavy losses; UN condemns; no negotiations.

These build on dominance (thousands of targets hit, capability degradation) amid Iranian asymmetric/maritime push and proxy activation.

Updated Timeline of Key Events (Focus on Overnight)

  • March 11 Evening – March 12 Morning: Israel begins wide-scale strikes on Iran; Iran targets Israeli bases/Shin Bet; Gulf shipping attacked (Dubai ship, Iraq tankers); Trump: War won/end soon; CENTCOM update: Dismantling complete; Beirut strike kills 7+; oil volatility; Khamenei confirmed safe/injured.
  • March 12 Morning: Ongoing exchanges; Iran FM: No talks; Trump pledges end amid escalation; regional condemnations.

Updated Casualties and Humanitarian Impacts

  • US: 7 killed, ~140 wounded (bases, ops).
  • Iran: >1,348 civilians killed; thousands of sites hit.
  • Israel and Region: 13 in Israel; 6 UAE; Lebanon 634 killed, 1,586 injured; Gulf incidents. Humanitarian: Displacement; Beirut shelter strikes; Tehran chaos; stranded travelers; protests.

Updated Economic and Global Impacts

Oil > $100 (surge/dip from attacks/reserves); Hormuz threats/blockade; shipping disruptions; markets volatile; high US costs (~$11B+ early); energy crisis risks.

International Reactions and Statements (Updates)

  • US: Trump: Won/already over soon; escalation threats. CENTCOM: Devastating; objectives achieved.
  • Israel: Wide strikes; reject ceasefire proposals.
  • Iran: No negotiations; blockade vows; joint ops; new leader safe.
  • Others: Gulf intercepts/condemnations; UN spiral warnings; China/Russia contacts.

Conclusion

Overnight escalations (Gulf maritime attacks, broad Israeli waves) contrast Trump’s “victory” claims and end signals, with Iran’s resistance/proxies sustaining risks of energy crisis, wider war, and attrition. Coalition dominance advances (dismantled forces, objectives met) yet maritime/proxy fronts prolong conflict. Casualties high (Iran >1,348 civilians; US 7); economic shocks persist. No resolution; highly fluid as of March 12 morning.

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References

  • Al Jazeera. (2026, March 12). Iran war: What is happening on day 13 of US-Israel attacks?
  • CNN. (2026, March 12). What we know on the 13th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran.
  • Fox News. (2026, March 12). Iranian attacks escalate across Middle East as container ship struck near Dubai.
  • NBC News. (2026, March 12). Live updates: Oil tops $100 before dipping again as Iran attacks ships, war enters Day 13.
  • The New York Times. (2026, March 11). New Iranian Leader Was Wounded Early in the War.
  • Wikipedia. (2026). 2026 Iran war.
  • Various X posts (March 11-12, 2026). Including White House statements, Trump remarks, and developments from users like @WhiteHouse, @RapidResponse47.
Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, Chief Investment Officer at Roan Capital Partners – Experienced fee-only fiduciary wealth advisor in Tennessee

Written by: Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, DBA, CIMA, CTFA, CIS, Chief Investment Officer

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