Market Updates

Situation Report: Epic Fury (US-Iranian Conflict) as of March 11, 2026

Executive Summary

As of the morning of March 11, 2026, the US-Israeli joint operation against Iran, Operation Epic Fury (US) / Operation Lion’s Roar (Israel), has entered its twelfth day (since initiation on February 28). Overnight and early morning developments (March 10-11) include what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described as the “most intense day” of US strikes yet, with continued heavy airstrikes targeting IRGC facilities, deeply buried missile launchers (via Strategic Command bombers dropping dozens of 2,000-pound GPS-penetrating weapons), naval vessels (including destruction of multiple minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz), and other military infrastructure across Iran. Iranian responses have slowed significantly (ballistic missile attacks down ~90%, drone attacks down ~83%), though Tehran launched fresh waves targeting Israel (sirens in Tel Aviv, northern West Bank; some impacts) and Gulf US bases (e.g., Al Udeid in Qatar, Bahrain). Over 5,000 targets struck to date; near-total air superiority claimed; navy largely dismantled (50+ vessels destroyed). New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (injured lightly in early war days, legs affected, but reported “safe and sound” per adviser) remains out of public view amid speculation; hard-line continuity persists. US casualties: ~7-8 killed, ~140 wounded. Iranian civilian toll >1,300 (Tehran reports nearly 10,000 civilian sites hit). Oil prices volatile (topped $100+/barrel, Hormuz disruptions/mining threats).

Trump maintains war “very far ahead of schedule,” “very complete,” end possible “pretty quickly”/”soon,” but warns of escalation if Hormuz blocked. No de-escalation; Iran vows prolonged resistance, potential “energy war”; regional spillover (Hezbollah, proxies) continues.

Key Changes Overnight: (March 10-11)

Overnight developments highlight peak intensity in US strikes, waning Iranian missile output, naval interdiction near Hormuz, and ongoing succession/health speculation:

  • Military Actions: Hegseth/CENTCOM: “Most intense day” of strikes; >5,000 total targets hit; B-2/B-52 bombers targeted buried launchers/southern flank; US destroyed Iranian minelayers near Hormuz (Trump: 10 vessels); footage released of naval strikes. Air dominance nearcomplete.
  • Iranian Retaliation: Missiles/drones toward Israel (sirens, interceptions/impacts); strikes on Gulf US bases (Qatar Al Udeid, Bahrain reported); pace reduced but persistent; threats to blockade oil until attacks end.
  • Leadership/Succession: Mojtaba Khamenei (new Supreme Leader) lightly wounded early (legs, per Israeli/Iranian officials); “safe” per adviser; no public appearances; hardliners maintain control.
  • US Statements: Hegseth: Overwhelming focus/objectives met; Iran “badly losing,” “stands alone.” Trump: End “soon” but open-ended; threats if Hormuz blocked (“death, fire and fury”).
  • Casualties: US: 7 killed (confirmed), ~140 wounded. Iran: >1,300 civilians killed (Tehran claims); additional from strikes (e.g., Tehran debris recovery, bodies retrieved).
  • Economic/Global: Oil >$100/barrel (surges/easing); Hormuz shippingdisrupted (mining reports, US destruction); markets volatile;evacuations (e.g., Dubai airport).
  • Other: Hezbollah cluster munitions; NATO intercepts (e.g., overTürkiye); China/Russia/France ceasefire contacts; UN concerns.

These reinforce coalition dominance (missile/naval degradation, aircontrol) amid Iranian asymmetric efforts and leadership opacity.

Updated Timeline of Key Events (Focus on Overnight)

  • March 10 Evening – March 11 Morning: Hegseth announces “most intenseday” strikes; US hits buried launchers, naval minelayers near Hormuz;Iran launches missiles/drones (Israel sirens, Gulf bases); Khameneireported safe despite injuries; Trump mixed end signals; Tehran debrisrecovery (bodies retrieved near Resalat Square); oil volatility persists.
  • March 11 Morning: Ongoing strikes/exchanges; Hegseth briefing detailsdominance; Iran vows blockade; regional alerts.

Updated Casualties and Humanitarian Impacts

  • US: 7 killed (confirmed), ~140 wounded (shrapnel, blasts, ops).
  • Iran: >1,300 civilians killed (Tehran claims); nearly 10,000 civilian sites hit;debris/recovery in Tehran.
  • Israel and Region: Injuries from missiles; Lebanon ~486+ killed; Gulfincidents. Humanitarian: Mass displacement; evacuations; chaos inTehran (rescue efforts); global stranded travelers/protests.

Updated Economic and Global Impacts

Oil topped $100+/barrel (Hormuz disruptions/mining); surges/easing; energy fears; markets mixed; potential prolonged crisis costs.

International Reactions and Statements (Updates)

  • US: Hegseth: Intense strikes, objectives met; Iran losing. Trump: Ahead of schedule, end soon but escalation threats.
  • Israel: Continued strikes; Netanyahu vows overthrow aim.
  • Iran: Prolonged fight; blockade threats; new leader safe/injured.
  • Others: Gulf condemnations/intercepts; NATO/Türkiye; China/Russia/France ceasefire pushes; UN spiral warnings.

Conclusion

Overnight “most intense” strikes underscore US/Israeli air/naval supremacy (>5,000 targets, missile/drone reductions), but Iranian persistence (Gulf/Israel barrages, Hormuz threats) and Khamenei’s low-profile succession sustain risks of energy war, attrition, and wider involvement. Casualties mount (US ~140 wounded; Iran >1,300 civilians); economic shocks continue. Trump signals possible quick end yet prepares for prolongation. Highly fluid as of March 11 morning.

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References

  • Al Jazeera. (2026, March 11). Iran war: What is happening on day 12 of US-Israel attacks?
  • Britannica. (2026). 2026 Iran conflict.
  • CNN. (2026, March 10). What we know on the 12th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran.
  • NBC News. (2026, March 11). ‘Most intense day’ of U.S. strikes on Iran, Hegseth says; Tehran warns it will block oil until attacks end.
  • The Guardian. (2026, March 11). Middle East crisis live: Claims new Iranian supreme leader ‘safe’ despite war injuries; ships hit in strait of Hormuz.
  • The New York Times. (2026, March 11). Iran’s New Supreme Leader Was Wounded Early in the War, Iranian and Israeli Officials Say.
  • Various X posts (March 10-11, 2026). Including updates on strikes, Hegseth briefings, casualties, and developments from users like @WillCainShow, @anadoluagency, @MultibaggAIHQ.
Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, Chief Investment Officer at Roan Capital Partners – Experienced fee-only fiduciary wealth advisor in Tennessee

Written by: Dr. Jeffrey Kastner, DBA, CIMA, CTFA, CIS, Chief Investment Officer

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